% Chance of Winning a Legendary Car – a Smashy Road Experiment

Ever wonder what the chance of getting a legendary car is? Or maybe an epic, common, or rare car?

We conducted an experiment using 200 spins and documenting the frequency of each car type won.  We were able to spin 200 times in about 30 minutes thanks to the billions of smashy road dollars generated from our hack tool.  The results are really interesting and put to rest any uncertainty about the chance of getting a legendary.

Video of our 200 spin experiment:

Out of 200 spins we won the following:

  • Common – 98
  • Rare – 61
  • Epic – 32
  • Legendary – 9

In percentages this translates to

  • Common 49%
  • Rare 30.5%
  • Epic 16%
  • Legendary 4.5%

200 is a fairly large sample size, so it is safe to determine these are accurate values.  We can also determine that the creators of the game probably wouldn’t pick such arbitrary numbers.  Lets round these to their much more likely and actual values.

The final results after rounding:

  • 50% for a common car
  • 30% chance for a rare car
  • 15% chance for an epic car
  • 5% chance for a legendary car

Keep in mind there are 90 cars to choose from: 45 common, 21 rare, 15 epic, and 9 legendary.

This means that for the common cars there is no modifier, however for the remaining types the legendary car receives a reduction in chance to ensure people don’t get too many of them (so theyll have to spend more money).

Money needed to get all the cars without using cheats

The math of this is similar to the coupon collector problem, we need to figure out the average amount of tries it will take to roll all 90 cars, including duplicates.

smashy road cheats formula

Equation to calculate average tries needed

After crunching the numbers we get 900 rolls or 90,000 smashy road dollars.  It up to you if you want to spend that much time grinding, or you can just use cheats.

Individual Legendary Car Chances

As far as whether some legendary cars are more rare than others I am not sure.  Out of the 9 legendary cars won we had the following numbers

  • Time Machine x3
  • Tank Destroyer x2
  • Money Man
  • Boom Bus
  • F1
  • Rocket Launcher

At first this seems like a pretty even spread, with some 1.18 cars like the boom bus included in the mix.  However winning 3 time machines confirms a theory I have had for a long time that the Time Machine is the easiest legendary to get.  I often would win the car when playing smashy road on my mod free version of the game.  If you find yourself getting alot of Time Machines–more than other legendary cars– write a comment below.

Unfortunately to get enough data on individual legendary car percent chances we will need to run an experiment with upwards of 2000 spins, which would net 100+ legendary cars.

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